By Gbolahan Ogundimu Odusanya
*Photo: President Bola Tinubu*
Mr. Onanuga’s piece reads like a campaign brief, and there are areas where the government deserves credit for taking hard decisions. But if the goal is to communicate with Nigerians, the speech has gaps that make it sound disconnected from what people face daily. Here are the main holes, and why the masses say they are “not feeling it”:
Increased FAAC allocations ≠ better lives at the household level
It’s true that FAAC allocations to states rose after subsidy removal. Governors have confirmed this. But the speech stops there. It doesn’t show how that translated to cheaper food, stable power, or lower transport for the average family.
Reality on the ground:
PMS is over ₦1,350/liter vs under ₦200 in May 2023.
LPG is ~₦2,000/kg.
Food inflation is still above 30% YoY as of mid-2026.
When income doesn’t rise at the same rate, higher state allocations don’t reach the market woman in Mushin or the okada rider in Kaduna. The “Tinubu effect” stops at the State House gate for most people.
Stock market gains are not the same as economic relief
Citing the ASI rising from 53,000 to 250,000 and market cap to ₦160T is technically correct, but it’s a capital market metric. Less than 5% of Nigerians participate directly in the stock market.
The man in Ketu who sells garri doesn’t eat ASI points. Until the real sector—manufacturing, SMEs, agriculture—shows falling costs and expanding jobs, market indices look like a boom for investors, not for the masses.
Power claims misplace responsibility but ignore outcomes
The piece correctly notes that Discos handle distribution, but the promise Nigerians heard was “24/7 power.” The response now is “we’re fixing the grid, metering, GAMCO.”
The problem: Band A/B tariffs rose sharply, yet most Nigerians still don’t see 12-18 hours daily supply. If people pay more and get the same or worse supply, they won’t credit “reforms.” They’ll call it pain without gain. The speech offers process; people want results.
NELFUND and CREDICORP are real, but scale and reach are limited
1.6m students benefiting from NELFUND is a good start. But with over 2.2m candidates writing UTME yearly, it’s a fraction. CREDICORP helps civil servants, but 80%+ of the workforce is informal. The speech presents these as mass relief programs, but they don’t yet touch the informal trader, artisan, or unemployed youth who make up the majority.
Security gains are acknowledged, but the lived experience is fear
It’s fair to say the military has neutralized many bandit leaders. But in Benue, Plateau, Zamfara, Niger, and parts of the North-West and South-East, attacks and kidnappings continue.
When farmers can’t go to farms and highways remain risky, “we are winning” feels like a briefing room statement, not a village reality.
The “critics don’t have proof” line misses the point
Saying the opposition parrots “hunger” without empirical proof ignores NBS, World Bank, and market data showing rising poverty and food inflation.
Dismissing lived experience as sentiment makes people feel unheard. That’s how you lose trust.
What this tells us
The President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu took hard decisions that were necessary to stop fiscal collapse. Ending subsidy and unifying FX were bullets he took for the country. But the people around him are presenting inputs as outcomes.
Inputs: higher FAAC, road contracts signed, NELFUND disbursed.
Outcomes: lower food prices, stable power, jobs, safety.
When advisers confuse the two, the President gets bad feedback and the public feels lied to.
What should change in the messaging
Speak to outcomes, not just policies: Show a table of how prices of 5 staple foods, transport, and power have moved in 12 months, and what’s being done if they haven’t moved down.
Target the informal sector: Most Nigerians are outside formal payroll. Relief must reach markets, transport unions, artisans, not just civil servants and students.
Admit the lag: Say clearly: “Reforms hurt first, here’s the timeline and metrics for when relief comes.” Silence on that lag breeds cynicism.
Separate state projects from federal credit:
Governors are building roads and taking credit. Let the FG publish what is federal, what is state, and what is PPP, so citizens know who to hold accountable.
Mr. President means well, and the reforms were needed. But the people around him must stop dressing press releases as lived reality.
Nigerians are patient, but patience needs a visible path to relief. If the goal is 2027, the campaign should start with truth-telling now.
Signed
Gbolahan Ogundimu Odusanya
MBA Cost Mgt
Addendum
My summary submission of How far Mr President has fared since May 29th 2023