Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued its downward trajectory in September 2026, falling to 14.63% from 15.39% in August, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday.
The figure represents a significant 6.35 percentage-point drop from the 20.98% recorded in the same month of 2025, underscoring a sustained disinflation trend that has now extended for a fourth consecutive month. On a month-on-month basis, the headline rate slowed sharply to just 0.06%, compared with 0.71% in August — a 0.65 percentage-point moderation that indicates the average price level rose only marginally during the month.
The Consumer Price Index itself edged up slightly to 146.38 in September from 146.30 in August, reflecting the new CPI base year of 2024 adopted by the NBS.
Urban and rural divergence
Urban inflation stood at 15.64% year-on-year in September, 12.58 percentage points lower than the 28.48% reported in September 2025. The corresponding twelve-month average was 15.90%.
However, month-on-month urban inflation accelerated to 0.53% from 0.28% in August.
Rural areas painted a more favourable picture. Rural inflation declined to 12.46% year-on-year, with the twelve-month average at 15.32% — 10.35 percentage points below the 25.67% recorded a year earlier. On a monthly basis, rural inflation turned negative at -0.89%, a sharp 2.68 percentage-point drop from the 1.79% rate in August.
Food prices retreat while core pressures rise
Food inflation, a key driver of overall price pressures, moderated to 19.59% year-on-year from 20.16% in September 2025. More notably, food prices fell on a month-on-month basis by 1.55%, reversing the 1.02% increase recorded in August. The NBS attributed the decline to lower average prices of items including guinea corn flour, maize flour, local short-grained rice, eggs, fresh onions, palm oil, green beans, Irish potatoes, okra, tomatoes, green peas and plantain.
In contrast, core inflation — which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy — rose on a monthly basis to 1.11% from -0.06% in August, even as the year-on-year rate eased to 12.95% from 22.11% a year earlier.
At the divisional level, the largest contributors to headline inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.85%), restaurants and accommodation services (1.89%), and transport (1.56%). Sub-index data showed farm produce prices declining 2.86% month-on-month, while energy costs rose 5.38%.
State-level variations
All-items inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Imo (30.04%), Enugu (22.38%) and Niger (22.05%), while Taraba (1.78%), Bauchi (2.84%) and Adamawa (3.66%) recorded the lowest rates. Month-on-month, Imo, Kaduna and Sokoto saw the strongest increases, whereas Adamawa, Bauchi and Kano posted the sharpest declines.
The latest data offer some relief to households and policymakers after prolonged high inflation, though food prices remain elevated and core inflation has shown renewed monthly firmness.
Analysts will be watching closely to see whether the disinflation trend can be sustained amid ongoing energy price pressures and broader economic conditions.