*Photo: Alhaji Atiku Abubakar*
As far as I am concerned this coalition party appears to me as a super contrivance by the North to take power from Bola Tinubu.
And if Tinubu doesn’t step up his game they will throw him out of the Villa.
This is the likely scenario.
Atiku has seen an opening and it is going as planned.
It is evident that Atiku Abubakar will get the ticket because he is the arrow head of this coalition. It is a masterpiece put together by the northern political strategists.
He would most likely offer Peter Obi the role of a Vice.
Peter Obi would likely take it or reject it.
All is still in Atiku’s favour.
If Peter Obi rejects his offer he would get someone else, maybe Ameachi.
Peter Obi goes back to the Labour Party as their Presidential Candidate.
Peter Obi is popular and his base is still very strong and intact, especially in the Southeast, South South and Lagos and part of North Central.
Then comes Wike PDP. Since Wike had insisted that the next PDP Presidential Candidate would have to be from the South it is very plausible that the PDP Presidential Candidate would be a Southerner, maybe Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde.
And then the major Presidential Candidate will be in the following order.
1. Ahmed Tinubu APC
2. Peter Obi Labour Party
3. Seyi Makinde PDP
4. Atiku Abubakar ADC
All three main Presidential Candidates are from the South while Atiku Abubakar sits pretty comfortably as the only Northern Candidate.
The idea of the coalition is to completely weaken the Southern base of Tinubu where he could only be guaranteed a victory in Southwest with not more than 55 to 60% because of the huge influence of Obi and Makinde.
Peter Obi will take Southeast comfortably and split the South South votes.
Seyi Makinde will make minimal gains in Southwest, especially around the Oyo and Osun states area and the South South where PDP is still very formidable.
For the sake of clarity outside of Lagos State Oyo is the second biggest voting bloc in Southwest.
Atiku Abubakar will take both Northeast and Northwest comfortably while the North Central will come in handy for all candidates.
Atiku Abubakar’s insistence on the coalition ticket is because of the huge opportunity the coalition offers him.
A major determinant of voters will be tribe and religion. All thanks to Tinubu that has raised tribalism to an alarming proportion.
It will be foolhardy for anyone to think a Fulani or an Hausa man will vote Tinubu against Atiku. The same way a Yoruba man is not likely to vote Atiku against Tinubu or an Igbo man will leave Peter Obi to vote either Tinubu or Atiku.
It appears to me this is the best chance for Atiku Abubakar.