*Photo: President Bola Tinubu *
Introduction
Nigeria, by any measure, is a nation of staggering potential. It is Africa’s most populous country, its largest economy, and a beacon of cultural influence across the continent and the diaspora. It is endowed with vast natural resources, from hydrocarbons to fertile arable land. It possesses a dynamic, entrepreneurial, and youthful population whose ingenuity is evident in its thriving tech ecosystem and Nollywood’s global reach. This is the profile of a nation destined not only to lead Africa but also to hold a significant place on the world stage. Yet, this destiny remains persistently unfulfilled.
The recent 2025 Chandler Good Government Index (CGGI) offers a sobering, data-driven reflection of this paradox. While Mauritius, Rwanda, Botswana, Morocco, and South Africa were highlighted as Africa’s top performers in public sector effectiveness, Nigeria’s absence from this list is a glaring omission that demands urgent interrogation. For a nation that styles itself as the “Giant of Africa,” its chronic underperformance in governance metrics is the single most significant constraint on its progress. This article moves beyond the familiar lamentations of corruption and inefficiency to provide a forensic analysis of why Nigeria lags behind its peers. By deconstructing the pillars of good governance as defined by the CGGI and comparing Nigeria’s reality with the successes of continental front-runners, we can chart a clear, actionable path for its leaders and citizens to awaken the giant and finally align its governance capabilities with its immense potential.
I. The Chandler Index: A Diagnostic Snapshot of Nigeria’s Governance Deficit
The Chandler Good Government Index is not a popularity contest; it is a rigorous evaluation of a state’s capability based on over 50 indicators across seven foundational pillars: Leadership and Foresight, Robust Laws and Policies, Strong Institutions, Financial Stewardship, Attractive Marketplace, Global Influence and Reputation, and a Helpful Society. Nigeria’s middling-to-poor performance across these pillars reveals a systemic, rather than incidental, governance crisis.
While the exact ranking for Nigeria in the 2025 index may vary, its historical positioning and current realities place it significantly behind the top African performers. The nation consistently scores poorly on Financial Stewardship**, plagued by revenue leakages, unsustainable debt servicing, and inefficient public spending. Its scores for Strong Institutions are weakened by perceptions of judicial delays, regulatory uncertainty, and political interference in bureaucratic and independent agencies. Most critically, its performance in building a Helpful Society. Where the government effectively delivers core services like security, health, and education to its citizens, the gap between potential and reality is most painfully evident for the average Nigerian.
This deficit is not due to a lack of plans. Nigeria has produced numerous visionary documents, such as the National Development Plan 2021-2025. The chasm exists in the implementation capability of the public sector—the engine room that must translate high-level strategy into tangible outcomes for citizens. This is the core capability that Rwanda has mastered, whereas Nigeria has yet to consistently build.
II. A Tale of Two Models: Nigeria vs. The Continental Front-Runners
To understand Nigeria’s challenges, it is instructive to compare its realities with the strategies employed by the top performers.
1. Strategic Foresight vs. Short-Term Firefighting:
Mauritius and Rwanda are celebrated for their long-term strategic vision. Rwanda’s Vision 2050 and Mauritius’s long-standing commitment to a meritocratic civil service demonstrate Leadership and Foresight. Policies are designed with a multi-generational outlook. In contrast, Nigeria’s governance is often characterized by a short-term, reactive approach. Policy directions can shift dramatically with changes in administration, resulting in abandoned projects and policy inconsistencies. There is a lack of a cohesive, long-term national strategy that is insulated from political cycles and embraced by all stakeholders.
2. Institutional Strength vs. Institutional Capture:
Botswana’s rise is built on its strong, independent institutions, particularly its judiciary and anti-corruption bodies. While Nigeria has established similar agencies—the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC), and a theoretically independent judiciary—their effectiveness is often perceived to be compromised by political influence. The perception, and often the reality, of institutional capture erodes public trust, creating an environment where rules are applied selectively. This undermines the very essence of **Robust Laws and policies.
3. Digital Revolution vs. Analog Bureaucracy:
Rwanda’s Irembo platform and Morocco’s investments in digital infrastructure represent a strategic bet on using technology to leapfrog legacy challenges. E-governance reduces opportunities for corruption, improves efficiency, and enhances service delivery. Nigeria’s public sector, however, remains anchored mainly in analog, paper-based processes. While initiatives such as the Bank Verification Number (BVN) and the National Identity Number (NIN) exist, their integration into a seamless digital government service delivery platform remains incomplete. The bureaucracy often functions as a gatekeeper rather than an enabler, creating friction and frustrating citizens and businesses alike.
4. Fiscal Prudence vs. Resource Curse:
Mauritius and Botswana have excelled in Financial Stewardship by managing their resources prudently. Botswana famously avoided the “resource curse” by channeling diamond revenues into a sovereign wealth fund and prudent national development. Nigeria’s experience with oil wealth, however, has become a textbook case of the resource curse. The nation suffers from a debilitating reliance on hydrocarbon revenues, leading to a volatile economy, neglect of other sectors such as agriculture and solid minerals, and a culture where state revenue is viewed as a national cake to be shared rather than a national capital to be invested. Recurrent expenditure, including a bloated public wage bill and costly subsidies, consistently crowds out critical capital investment in infrastructure and human development.
III. The Core Challenges: A Multi-Dimensional Crisis
Nigeria’s governance challenges are deep and interwoven, creating a complex problem that requires a multi-pronged solution.
1. The Implementation Gap: Nigeria is a nation of excellent policies and poor implementation. The public sector lacks a culture of performance management, effective accountability mechanisms, and digital tools to execute plans efficiently. There is a wide gap between policy pronouncements in Abuja and the reality on the ground in states and local governments.
2. The Security Quagmire: Pervasive insecurity—from insurgency in the Northeast to banditry in the Northwest and separatist agitations in the Southeast—places a massive strain on government resources, scares away investment, and destroys the foundation of a Helpful Society. A citizen who is unsafe cannot thrive, and a business that is under threat cannot invest.
3. The Revenue Crisis: The government is unable to generate sufficient revenue internally. Low non-oil tax compliance, a large informal economy, and oil theft create a situation where the government is perpetually borrowing to fund even basic expenditure, leading to a debt crisis that further constricts its ability to act.
4. A Fractured Social Contract: Decades of unmet expectations have eroded the trust between the government and the governed. This manifests in low tax morale, a brain drain of skilled professionals (known as “brain drain” or “Japa syndrome”), and public cynicism. Rebuilding this social contract is the most fundamental challenge.
IV. A Blueprint for Reform: What Leaders Must Do
Awakening the giant requires courageous, focused, and sustained action from Nigeria’s leadership across all tiers of government.
1. Embrace and Enforce Long-Term Strategic Planning:
Nigeria must develop a binding national development plan that transcends the tenure of individual political administrations. This plan, which focuses on key areas such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare, must be supported by legislation to ensure continuity. The current National Development Plan is a start, but it lacks the necessary legal and institutional framework to ensure its long-term sustainability beyond the current government.
2. Champion a Digital-First Public Service:
The government must launch a “Digital Nigeria” revolution aimed at automating all core citizen-to-government interactions. This entails investing in nationwide broadband infrastructure, mandating the digitization of all government records and processes, and establishing a single, integrated digital platform for services such as business registration, tax filing, passport applications, and license renewals. This will reduce corruption, increase efficiency, and improve transparency.
3. Insulate Key Institutions from Politics:
The judiciary, anti-corruption agencies, and the civil service must be granted genuine operational and financial autonomy. Appointments to these bodies must be based on merit and integrity, not political patronage. Strengthening institutions like the Public Procurement Bureau to ensure transparency in government contracts is crucial to rebuilding trust.
4. Fix the Revenue Engine:
The government must widen the tax net by integrating databases (BVN, NIN, VIN) to identify and bring more citizens into the formal tax system. It must simplify tax policies to encourage compliance and aggressively tackle oil theft and pipeline vandalism, thereby restoring a crucial revenue stream. Simultaneously, it must demonstrate fiscal responsibility by rationalizing its expenditure, particularly on subsidies and governance costs, to free up resources for capital projects. One hope is that the Tax Reform Laws will correct these ills and set the nation on the path of growth.
5. Decentralize and Empower:
Nigeria’s federal structure needs to be made more functional. States should be encouraged to become centers of development and innovation by granting them more autonomy and responsibility for their resources and security, within the constitutional framework. This healthy competition among states can drive national progress. It remains unclear whether the States are complying with the Supreme Court’s judgment on the autonomy of local governments nationwide, as mixed reactions and narratives vary depending on the perspective being presented.
V. The Citizen’s Mandate: From Passive Observers to Active Architects
Governance is not a spectator sport. Citizens cannot outsource their responsibility solely to politicians.
1. Demand Accountability and Active Citizenship:
Citizens must move beyond complaining and actively engage with governance. This involves utilizing technology and platforms, such as social media, to hold elected officials accountable, participating in public hearings, and posing pointed questions about budgetary allocations and project execution at the local, state, and federal levels.
2. Embrace Tax Compliance and Civic Duty:
With improved governance and transparency must come a willingness from citizens to fulfill their civic obligations, particularly in the form of tax payment. A robust social contract is a two-way street: citizens pay taxes, and the government provides quality services in return. Citizens must also reject and report corruption in their daily interactions with public officials.
3. Promote National Cohesion:
Nigeria’s diversity is its strength, but it is often exploited for political gain. Citizens must consciously build bridges across ethnic and religious lines, fostering a shared sense of national identity that prioritizes the common good over narrow sectarian interests.
Conclusion: Is the awakening possible? It is with concerted efforts from all. Nigeria’s absence from the top ranks of the Chandler Good Government Index is not a life sentence. It is a diagnosis. The successes of Mauritius, Rwanda, and Botswana demonstrate that progress is achievable with intentionality, discipline, and a relentless focus on building state capacity. These nations have shown that effective governance is a choice.
The resources—both human and natural—to make this choice are abundant in Nigeria. What has been lacking is the collective will to prioritize governance over politics, institution-building over personal aggrandizement, and long-term strategy over short-term gain. The blueprint for reform is clear. It requires courageous leadership to implement complex changes and an engaged, demanding citizenry to sustain them.
The Giant of Africa is not doomed to sleep forever. By learning from its peers, confronting its governance deficits head-on, and harnessing the unparalleled energy of its people, Nigeria can indeed awaken. It can transform its vast potential into tangible prosperity and finally take its rightful place not just as a giant in name, but as a leader in deed and in governance. The time for that awakening is now.